Has the economic recession knocked down India in year 2023?
How will the coming year 2023 recession in India grow?
And what will be the effect of this economic recession on their investment?
How long will the danger of the Recession of this economic recession remain in the whole world and India?
What steps should such an investor take so that the coming recession will have a minor effect on his investment?
We will answer all these questions about your investment. You know the answer in this blog. Let’s move towards the first question regarding the Recession, i.e., International Monetary Fund and World Bank. For your information, let us tell you that IMF, i.e., International Monetary Fund. In the last year, global economic growth has decreased.
Global economic slowdown in 2023
Global economic growth will be slow in 2023. One of the main reasons is an economic recession that the world’s big economies are gradually slowing down.
We can see here that the pace of the GDP of America has been plodding for the last two quarters.
Growth gone into hostile America’s growth rate in the first quarter of this year is – 1.6%, and in the second quarter minus 0.6%.
If we look at the growth rate of the United Kingdom, we will see it continuously decreasing. For example, in the year’s first quarter, it will drop to 0.7%, further reducing to 0.2% in the second quarter, i.e. in the latest quarter.
If we look at the growth rate of the European Union, we will see it decreasing in a similar pattern. However, its growth has remained at 0.7% and 0.8% in two quarters.
The United Kingdom could grow at 0.5%, France at 1%, the US at 1%, and Brazil at 1.1% in 2023. China can be rising at a speed of 4.6%.
India at a pace of 6.1% in 2023, and after seeing all these data, one thing is clear whether it is America, Europe or China, all these countries’ Economic Superpower has slowly started coming under the grip of economic recession.
The recession has knocked in all these countries. According to IMF, two reasons responsible for the coming economic downturn for this Recession are Covid -19 and Russia Ukraine war.
During covid 19, as we all know, the global lockdown, due to which economic activities completely stopped, destroyed the financial system. But, simultaneously, the increased Inflation rate had become high due to demand.
We had just started handling all these situations that at the beginning of this year In Aat, i.e. in February of 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out.
If it has increased, then this phase of recession, which is the recession phase, remains continuous for a long time. This situation is called stack station, a significant factor in any economy.
Due to this, there is a considerable decline in the demand in the market. As a result, goes and industrial production becomes very low, and here all these economists also believe that if there is a recession now, then its form can be like the recession of 2008.
For your information, let me tell you that currently, 18 countries are doing government bonds. The names of these countries are Kazakhstan, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary, Turkey, Chile, Canada, Czech Republic, Hong Kong, United States, Poland, Iceland, Sweden and South Korea. So we can see here that history is repeating.
It may be that in the coming times, this fifth economic depression will come in front of and us, then with this, we will move towards our next question, where We will try to know whether the recipient has been done in India or is going to come, how will be the coming time for investors and what will be the effect of recession on their investment, so let’s try to understand with the help of some indicators.
How will the coming year 2023 recession in India grow?
Has there been a recession in India or not? First of all, we will see the IIP date of September 2022, i.e. Index of Industrial Production, which shows us the growth rate of the industry and here we can see that IIP is in negative growth, i.e.
The sector’s development has become negative in the mines, down to 0.% since last year. On the other hand, the growth rate of I.P. was 13%, which has now become negative.
Here are some sectors there is a lot of negative growth. But, in contrast, if we compare this data with last year, The development of the industry was in double digits.
Whereas if we look at the data of August this year, then here is the growth in single digital or development in mines, the following indicator is the massive fall in the rupee value.
In the last year, The value of the rupee has lost more than 10%. Currently, $1 is worth 82.4 rupees, the highest star. With this falling rupee value, India must pay for the increased oil prices because India imports 85% of its needs.
The payment has to be in dollars, so the more the dollar gets more robust, the more India will have to pay for the import of oil, and in this trouble, the OPEC countries have decided to add fuel to the fire.
It means that we will produce 20 lakh barrels of oil less per day, and the value of this falling rupee will work. However, India has to pay another way. That is, the value of India’s foreign exchange is decreasing daily.
Last month, its value was 52 lakh crores, which increased to 45 lakh crores in October. A decline of more than 7 lakh crores is a significant economic concern. It will decrease further in the coming times.
We can also see that India’s exports have suffered a massive decline in the last few months, which is not a good sign for the economy.
And the current account deficit, trade deficit, and city and physical deficit are also increasing significantly in a few months if we look at the growth rate data.
The World Bank has reduced India’s growth rate from 7.5% to 6.5%, a more than 13% decline. See, the growth projection of OCD for India in 2022 is 6.9%. Even after lakhs of efforts of the Reserve Bank of India, it is not coming down below 7% and currently is 7.4%.
India’s growth has been reduced from 7.2% to 7%, which is a decline of 3%. Rating agency Moody’s has lowered India’s growth rate from 8.8% to 7.7%, which is a decline of 12%. International Monetary Fund has lowered India’s growth.
The rate is declining from 8.2% to 7.4%, which is a decline of 10%. Moreover, India has also reduced the growth of India’s GDP from 7.5% to 6.8%, which is a decline of more than 9%, and all these things point to only one side, that is, very rapid retirement in the whole world.
It has been near, and its impact can now be seen in India’s economy as well, but if we look at India’s position compared to the rest of the world, then India is looking very strong. So take this prediction. India’s growth rate is the highest in it, compared to the rest of the world and talk about the inverted curve.
So far, no effect can on Indian Government Bonds, but for how long will this status last? Keeping India intact will be worth watching because as recession risk increases worldwide, its impact will also grow more on India.
The already unplugged rate in India is very high, while inflation is also speedy. If the step pressure rises, then the threat of step pressure also hovers over India. To know the impact of this recession on the stock market, we can think recession of 2008 as an example, where the bubble burst after the crash of the Lehman Brothers. That there was a fall of more than 53% in that market.
And the similar decline was seen in our Indian stock market as well.
And if this recession comes again for the fifth time, the same effect on the world’s stock market will be the same.
It will also decline, so Pay investors must be careful. We move towards our last question, i.e. what steps should the investors take so that the coming recession has minimum impact on their investment portfolios? Here the investors have to take the first step during this recession, that is, try to increase their savings as much as possible and reduce their spending because if there is a recession, then in such a situation, it leaves its impact for a long time.
And there is a prolonged recovery growth rate from 6 months to two years, so it becomes essential for investors to keep a large part of their portfolio in the form of cash in the bank and avoid 100% equity exposure.
And all the investors have to maintain an emergency reserve for at least one to two years because the recession shows a massive decline in the stock market. For example, in the stock market of 2008, the stock market dropped by more than 50%.
Before investing a large amount in the market, do a good amount of research. Otherwise, your money can get stuck for a long time, and you can get negative growth. By subscribing to our channel, press the bell notification and spread awareness.